8/22/2003 01:32:00 PM | Brad Plumer Outsourcing... Economist Brad Delong has ignited a massive (and massively informative) discussion on outsourcing over at his blog. DeLong starts off by critiquing the projection that outsourcing will cost the US 3.3 million jobs over the next few years: First of all, the number of jobs in the United States is not set by what happens on the sea lanes--on what exports and imports the container ships carry from port to port. The number of jobs is set in the Eccles Building, by the Federal Reserve... (if the Federal Reserve does its job) Americans' demand for imports made in other countries is recycled into foreign demand that employs Americans in industries that export goods, export services, make producers equipment, or build structures... This means that nightmare scenarios--3.3 million high-tech jobs moving overseas--are beyond the bounds of short-run probability. The current account plus the capital account must balance: if the work that used to be done here by 3.3 million people is to be done there, that means that our export industries here must employ an extra 3.3 million people as well.Of course, that's a hefty little "if" couched in parentheses there, but this all seems plausible enough. We don't need to lose those jobs if we simply reshuffle our industries, and for that reason trade barriers are unnecessary (not to mention harmful). DeLong goes on to offer an alternative solution: First, get our people out of industry segments where we are about to lose comparative advantage and where wages are about to take a big dive--this is the reason we Democrats like various forms of Trade Adjustment Assistance, for those who work in such industries are about to get shafted and have done nothing to deserve it (and have the ability to impose enormous costs on the rest of us through trade barriers if the political dice roll their way). Second, make sure the public investments in basic research are there to spark applied research and development to create new industries and new forms of high-tech in which our labor and our capital can be very productive (NIH, NSF, DARPA anyone?). Third, remember that the principal determinants of our prosperity and our productivity come from within: get public investment in infrastructure right, private savings and investment high, and investment in education high as well.Well, that certainly sounds heaps more prudent than trade barriers, but not everyone seems so convinced. The ensuing debate in the comments section raises the usual army of objections, questions and concerns. To list a few: There's more, of course, and it's quite fascinating, even if it seems like no one knows what's really going on. Whether the outsourcing "crisis" makes a good case for protectionism... well, frankly, I have no idea either. perma link |
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