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Final Midterm Predictions
11/05/2006 08:45:00 PM | Nathan Empsall

The expert's final predictions are in. Take heart, fellow liberals and Democrats. It's unanimous: the Democrats will take the House by a large margin, and have a legitimate shot at taken the Senate.

Rothenberg Political Report: Dems take 34-40 House seats, 5-7 Senate seats.

Cook Political Report: 20 - 35 seats, but their House expert, Amy Walter, calls that a "a cautious prediction" - a conservative estimate. No Senate predictions.

U. Virginia's Larry Sabato of the Crystal Ball: 27 House seats, 6 Senate seats.

Chuck Todd of the National Journal's Hotline: 18 House seats, or 35+ - either a small takeover, or a huge wave, no middle ground. His co-host, John Murcurio, agrees. Hotline Senate predictions come Tuesday.

My own predictions: 25-35 House seats, probably around 30. 5 Senate seats, but I'm betting on 4-5, not a takeover. On the Senate side, I think we will win Ohio, Pennsylvania, Montana, Virginia, and Missouri. The Republicans will hold Rhode Island and Tennessee, just as we'll hold New Jersey and Maryland. If I'm wrong, it's most likely on Rhode Island and Missouri. You may have seen the new Mason Dixon polls that came out today, which explain my RI and TN predictions (this is the second of three polls showing Corker with a double-digit lead in TN, and I think incumbent/maverick advantages will kick in for Chafee).

I do have one regret: I think we missed a big opportunity in Nevada. It wasn't until a month or two ago that Republican incumbent Sen. John Ensign finally reached the 50% mark in polling, so he was vulnerable. The Democratic candidate, Jack Carter, had name recognition, given that his peanut farmer daddy's first name is Jimmy. We know Nevada is willing to elect Democrats, given that it's the home of Harry Reid and that it has a close gubernatorial race. And, with potential Democratic presidential candidates now traipsing through the state, fundraising shouldn't have been too hard. Why Schumer and the national media ignored this race, I'll never know.

I'll be watching Tuesday's results with the Karen Carter campaign in downtown New Orleans. Bottoms up! And word to the future - given who's retiring and which seats are up in 2008, if we don't get the Senate now, it's probably ours in two years anyway. Huzzah!



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